Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom

27%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

14%

Pete Buttigieg

Andy Beshear

Wes Moore

Gavin Newsom

27%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

14%

Pete Buttigieg

Andy Beshear

Wes Moore

$12m Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance

28%

Gavin Newsom

18%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Marco Rubio

Andy Beshear

JD Vance

28%

Gavin Newsom

18%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Marco Rubio

Andy Beshear

$10m Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

36%

chance

$18m Vol.

Bolivia Presidential Election

Rodrigo Paz

77%

Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga

22%

Andrónico Rodríguez

Luis Arce

<1%

Samuel Doria Medina

<1%

Rodrigo Paz

77%

Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga

22%

Andrónico Rodríguez

Luis Arce

<1%

Samuel Doria Medina

<1%

$11m Vol.

FC Basel vs. FC Kopenhagen

FC Basel

<1%

Draw (FC Basel vs. FC Kopenhagen)

100%

FC Kopenhagen

<1%

FC Basel

<1%

Draw (FC Basel vs. FC Kopenhagen)

100%

FC Kopenhagen

<1%

Live

$133k Vol.

Cardinals vs. Marlins

50%

Cardinals

$248k Vol.

Rangers vs. Royals

46%

Rangers

$602k Vol.

Fed decision in September?

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

69%

No change

30%

25+ bps increase

<1%

50+ bps decrease

25 bps decrease

69%

No change

30%

25+ bps increase

<1%

$30m Vol.

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2025

Yulia Navalnaya

19%

Donald Trump

14%

UNRWA

Volodymyr Zelensky

Alexei Gorinov

Yulia Navalnaya

19%

Donald Trump

14%

UNRWA

Volodymyr Zelensky

Alexei Gorinov

$2m Vol.

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Christopher Waller

33%

Kevin Hassett

15%

Kevin Warsh

14%

David Zervos

13%

James Bullard

Christopher Waller

33%

Kevin Hassett

15%

Kevin Warsh

14%

David Zervos

13%

James Bullard

$305k Vol.

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?

28%

chance

$1m Vol.

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?

chance

$1m Vol.

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?

chance

$2m Vol.

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31?

10%

chance

$5m Vol.

Trump agrees to send U.S. peacekeeping force to Ukraine?

chance

$43k Vol.

Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?

47%

chance

$500k Vol.

Who will Trump pardon in 2025?

Changpeng Zhao

19%

George Santos

14%

Roger Ver

12%

Ghislaine Maxwell

10%

Diddy

10%

Changpeng Zhao

19%

George Santos

14%

Roger Ver

12%

Ghislaine Maxwell

10%

Diddy

10%

$1m Vol.

Who will perform at Super Bowl halftime show?

Taylor Swift

74%

Sabrina Carpenter

19%

Travis Scott

16%

Post Malone

13%

Dua Lipa

12%

Taylor Swift

74%

Sabrina Carpenter

19%

Travis Scott

16%

Post Malone

13%

Dua Lipa

12%

$23k Vol.

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia?

32%

chance

$520k Vol.

New York City Mayoral Election

Zohran Mamdani

84%

Andrew Cuomo

10%

Eric Adams

Curtis Sliwa

Jim Walden

<1%

Zohran Mamdani

84%

Andrew Cuomo

10%

Eric Adams

Curtis Sliwa

Jim Walden

<1%

$52m Vol.

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025?

33%

chance

$58k Vol.

Bitcoin above ___ on August 20, 4PM ET?

>113k

100%

>115.5k

<1%

>117k

<1%

>117.5k

<1%

>113k

100%

>115.5k

<1%

>117k

<1%

>117.5k

<1%

$645k Vol.

What price will Ethereum hit in 2025?

$10,000

13%

$8,000

20%

$7,000

30%

$6,000

42%

$5,000

74%

$10,000

13%

$8,000

20%

$7,000

30%

$6,000

42%

$5,000

74%

$16m Vol.

Elon Musk # of tweets August 15-22?

<250

70%

250–274

21%

275–299

300–324

325–349

<250

70%

250–274

21%

275–299

300–324

325–349

$4m Vol.

F1 Drivers Champion

Oscar Piastri

61%

Lando Norris

37%

Max Verstappen

<1%

Charles Leclerc

<1%

George Russell

<1%

Oscar Piastri

61%

Lando Norris

37%

Max Verstappen

<1%

Charles Leclerc

<1%

George Russell

<1%

$91m Vol.

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

↑ 125k

13%

↓ 111k

54%

↓ 110k

43%

↓ 105k

12%

↓ 100k

↑ 125k

13%

↓ 111k

54%

↓ 110k

43%

↓ 105k

12%

↓ 100k

$14m Vol.

Bitcoin price on August 22?

<114k

40%

114–116k

32%

116–118k

18%

118–120k

120–122k

<114k

40%

114–116k

32%

116–118k

18%

118–120k

120–122k

$612k Vol.

What price will Ethereum hit in August?

↑ 5800

↑ 5400

↑ 5000

20%

↑ 4800

37%

↓ 3300

↑ 5800

↑ 5400

↑ 5000

20%

↑ 4800

37%

↓ 3300

$10m Vol.

English Premier League Winner

Liverpool

29%

Arsenal

29%

Man City

25%

Chelsea

10%

Man United

Liverpool

29%

Arsenal

29%

Man City

25%

Chelsea

10%

Man United

$4m Vol.

World Series Champion 2025

Los Angeles Dodgers

22%

Milwaukee Brewers

11%

Philadelphia Phillies

10%

Detroit Tigers

Toronto Blue Jays

Los Angeles Dodgers

22%

Milwaukee Brewers

11%

Philadelphia Phillies

10%

Detroit Tigers

Toronto Blue Jays

$49m Vol.

Super Bowl Champion 2026

Buffalo

13%

Baltimore

11%

Philadelphia

10%

Kansas City

Detroit

Buffalo

13%

Baltimore

11%

Philadelphia

10%

Kansas City

Detroit

$32m Vol.

Xi Jinping out in 2025?

chance

$9m Vol.

Mariners vs. Phillies

<1%

Mariners

$886k Vol.

•

•

•

•